Meet China's new hardcore giant
In 50 commercial cities, 50,000 base stations will be built in half a year, and 5G infrastructure work is being accelerated.
From the release of spectrum at the end of 2018 to the issuance of licenses in June this year, the commercial launch of 5G has now officially started, and China's 5G commercial advancement is one year earlier than expected.
Faced with the immense economic and social impact of 5G, US President Trump also shouted the slogan "5G competition has begun, the United States must win", and announced on April 3 this year that the United States officially launched 5G commercialization. .
Except for China and the United States, almost all developed countries worldwide are promoting 5G commercial construction at the same time. By the second quarter of 2019, 25 operators in 14 countries and regions have announced 5G commercial use. It is expected that by 2025, this data will be expanded to 413 operators in 118 countries.
The actions of domestic manufacturers precede Trump's speech. Today, there are more than 10 5G terminals, and operators' 5G packages have been fully opened. Users switch to 5G without changing cards or numbers. Most people have accepted the idea that 5G can change people's lives.
5G is about to detonate thousands of industries and is close to becoming a consensus.
CITIC Investment Research report predicts that in the whole year of 2019, 300,000 to 400,000 5G base stations are expected to be opened worldwide, of which China will account for one-third of them. From the perspective of operators' efforts to promote infrastructure construction, more and more new enterprises will embark on the “fast track” for development in the future, accelerate their growth, and even become giants.
Breakthroughs in Information Organization
When it comes to 5G, the first reaction of most users is that the network speed is faster and the transmission rate is higher, but in fact, the fast network speed is only the "enhanced mobile bandwidth" scenario among the three major scenarios of 5G.
According to the International Telecommunication Union's ITU definition, 5G communication mainly includes three major application scenarios: enhanced mobile bandwidth (hereinafter referred to as eMBB), mass Internet of Things communication (mMTC), and high-reliability and low-latency communication (uRLLC).
Among them, eMBB is an upgrade based on the original 4G communication. No matter the technical standard or the industrial ecology is more mature, it is also considered to be the first commercialized implementation scenario.
In the 4G era, smartphones have become widespread throughout society. People use mobile phones and Pads to replace almost all the functions that originally needed to be realized by computers. Watching video content is one of the most obvious changes.
The eMBB scenario was first commercialized, bringing an upgrade in user traffic usage and bringing the most intuitive feeling of change to consumers. Services such as live video, AR / VR, and games that have the highest network speed and bandwidth requirements will face tremendous changes and opportunities.
From the text operating system in the DOS era to the era of graphic interfaces, people have found a way to combine text and pictures to replace the original single text information presentation method. This has become one of the key factors for the rapid development of the information industry, and technology companies such as Apple and Microsoft have taken off.
From pictures, videos to live broadcasts, the way information is presented is constantly being explored. In the 4G era, short videos have become the latest form. The relatively comprehensive short video platforms such as Douyin and Kuaishou finally broke out after long-term brewing.
For short videos, the organization and presentation of information has gone beyond the simple picture + text form. Qi Qi, CEO of Qiqi Forum, commented highly on the short video, saying that "this is a new way of thinking and its business model deserves attention."
According to QuestMobile data, as of June 2019, the overall MAU of the short video industry was 822 million, a year-on-year growth of 32%. The rapid growth of data confirms that the audience's aesthetics and usage habits have shifted from still pictures to dynamic images. Short video + live broadcast has become a new form of information presentation.
Driven by the 5G high-bandwidth capability in the future, video content is expected to break through the limitations of the plane, and further develop towards 3D, and even immersive "hypervideo" development after combining virtual reality.
With eye tracking, environmental awareness and other terminal equipment, video information presentation will become more three-dimensional and vivid, and delivery will be more in place, bringing a brand new consumer experience.
In addition to Huya and Douyu, which are already listed live broadcast companies, short video rookies such as Douyin and Kuaishou, and panoramic content production equipment providers such as insta360, are expected to achieve further development in the 5G era.
In the B-side video industry, 5G will further promote the use of ultra-high-definition video in remote monitoring, security, inspection and other scenarios.
In March of this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television, and other agencies jointly issued the "Ultra HD Video Industry Development Action Plan (2019-2022)", which pointed out that in accordance with the "4K first, 8K" overall technical route, vigorously promote the ultra HD video industry Development and application, opportunities for industrial development are emerging.
In the field of video surveillance, the large bandwidth of 5G makes the monitoring content a key step from "visible" to "clear". Combined with intelligent technologies such as image (face) recognition, it can make smart security The system more quickly and automatically analyzes the facial expressions, body language and potential behavior trajectories of criminal suspects, thereby effectively identifying crimes and further strengthening control.
Power inspection is a key subdivision of video surveillance. In the extreme environment that is difficult to reach by humans such as engineering inspection, 5G + drones are used to realize timely transmission of ultra-high-definition monitoring data, which can effectively detect line aging, optimize project management and tasks. distribution.
VR, also known as virtual reality technology, is a technology that creates a world of multi-sensory fusion of sight, hearing, and touch through the device, and completely isolates the user from reality. It has a strong sense of immersion. On the other hand, AR is based on reality and uses technology to superimpose virtual information content into the real world so that users can feel it, thereby enhancing the interactive experience.
At present, VR / AR fields generally have problems such as low rendering capabilities and hardware devices that are not portable. In the 5G era, part of the rendering capabilities are completed in the cloud through cloud computing technology, and then backhaul is achieved with the help of 5G ultra-high speed and low latency capabilities. This can not only effectively solve the problem of insufficient rendering capabilities, but also reduce the weight of terminal equipment.
With the advantages of 5G technology's large bandwidth and low latency, VR / AR's interactive experience and immersion will be further improved, and at the same time, it will break away from a single entertainment function and accelerate its penetration into the production and living areas.
In terms of distance education, currently the industry is still dominated by video recording and broadcasting, and the teaching method is blunt, which is only suitable for some students with higher consciousness. But with 5G technology, the remote interaction mode will be more abundant and the frequency will be increased, which will help improve the quality of online learning.
In the area of remote entertainment, some large commercial real estate agencies have begun to create multimedia rooms to attract customers. Similarly, in the area of remote office work, some enterprises and institutions have begun to consider equipping remote interaction systems to improve office efficiency.
In terms of games, the concept of 5G + cloud games has become a hot spot in the market. Google and Microsoft have made arrangements in the field of cloud games.
5G has a strong role in promoting the development of the cloud game industry. Especially new games can be played without downloading, which can stimulate consumer interest. Bai Ning, founder and CEO of Youmi Technology, saw that "whether it is a cloud game or a VR game, we have already seen the emergence of some new companies."
It can be said that in some specific remote interactive scenarios, the commercialization of 5G technology will bring an intuitive promotion effect. Xinghan Capital's founding partner Yang Ge expressed optimism about the development of the VR / AR industry under the 5G empowerment.
Of course, from a deeper point of view, AR / VR can actually be understood as a process of image restoration, display and transmission, that is, forming a multi-screen, multi-image generator in a space, including projection, 3D, The transmission and display of hologram and other content can realize the immersive experience.
Judging from the current situation, just relying on the 5G technology to enable it cannot solve all the problems in the development of the VR / AR industry. "Everyone's understanding of AR / VR still needs to be further improved. 5G is just one of many driving forces," Yang Ge said.
After the further development of AR / VR, the new generation of human-computer interaction will be perfected, bringing users a brand-new experience, but the arrival of this day still takes a long time. At present, companies such as Liangfengtai and Yingchuang Technology can represent a higher level of industry development.
According to the current measured data, the 5G rate has reached more than 10 times that of 4G. Enhanced mobile bandwidth will first play a role in consumer anti-haze, bringing us a completely different sensory experience than before.
IoT scenario brings incremental market
In addition to the eMBB scenario, 5G's newly defined mass Internet of Things communication (mMTC for short) and high-reliability and low-latency communication (uRLLC for short) two scenarios bring broader industry prospects in the Internet of Things field.
At present, the most talked about "4G changes life, 5G changes society", the main emphasis is that after the ability of these two scenes to improve the level of the connection between things, the era of "all things connected" is coming.
Compared to eMBB, the industrial opportunities brought by the two scenarios, mMTC and uRLLC, are incremental markets that appear after technology upgrades and have a large scale. "The use of 5G is distributed in two or eight. 20% will be used for person-to-person communication and 80% will be used for person-to-thing, thing-to-thing communication," said Miao Wei, Minister of Industry and Information Technology.
The "2017-2018 China IoT Development Annual Report" shows that the number of global IoT devices has grown strongly in 2017, reaching 8.4 billion units, surpassing the population for the first time. The global IoT market is expected to achieve large-scale popularity in ten years, and by 2025 The market size may grow to $ 3.9-11.1 trillion.
The Internet of Things is all-encompassing. However, with the global division of labor becoming more and more fine-grained, more opportunities for 5G in the field of IoT will sink into more subdivided vertical industry scenarios.
There will be some changes in production methods in such areas as autonomous driving, smart homes, smart cities, industrial manufacturing, and retail. New giant companies are prone to emerge. In the next decade, there will be a lot of innovation opportunities in the field of Internet of Things.
In the 4G environment, the delay of a single thread of technology is about several hundred milliseconds. After the popularity of 5G, it will be reduced to tens of milliseconds, which means that many technical application scenarios that could not be achieved before can be realized.
"The three major scenarios of 5G each have their own advantages, but if they have to be in an order, low-latency technology brings the greatest value, so areas such as autonomous driving and telemedicine that have strict requirements on latency will benefit from this." , Said Cheng Hao, founding partner of Yuanwang Capital and founder of Thunder.
For example, at a traditional traffic light door, the mode of vehicle operation is that when the red light turns green, the first owner starts to step on the accelerator, and the following vehicles follow one by one, and a large amount of response time is wasted in the middle. Under the 5G environment, V2V (vehicle-to-vehicle) and V2I (vehicle-to-road) communication technology can allow all vehicles to get news at the same time and start at the same time, greatly improving traffic efficiency.
In the future, all vehicles can be deployed and managed through a unified basic management center, and traffic lights can be replaced. "Traffic lights are for people to see, cars don't need to see traffic lights," Cheng Hao said.
Sweeping cars and mobile robots in low-speed driving and closed scenes, as the important commercial scenes that have been preliminarily commercialized in intelligent unmanned driving technology, will also be the first commercialized areas for unmanned driving in the 5G era.
From the perspective of corporate development, institutions such as Horizon Robotics, which provides artificial intelligence algorithms and chips for intelligent driving and AIoT, and smart driving solution provider Yushi Technology, are expected to gain opportunities.
On the fully automatic manned driverless circuit for the L5 level, chances are unlikely to break out in the short term. In the case of a company such as Weilai, which still continues to lose money and has an uncertain future, this track is barely able to beat it. Now I am afraid that only Baidu all in AI is left. More opportunities will belong to traditional cars Business.
For a long time, everyone has great expectations for the development of driverless technology. The important reason is that cars have huge scale chips and smart accessories. This important industrial era product, if it can achieve online networking And intelligence, then it is likely to foretell that all aspects of the entire society may be changed by the Internet of Things technology, and the era of all things intelligent will become possible.
In the medical field, clinical operations require the coordination of a variety of precision instruments, which places high demands on the overall quality of the doctor. Using the advantages of 5G's low-latency capabilities to carry out remote surgery, patients in remote areas have the opportunity to get better medical treatment.
The combination of the home industry and 5G will accelerate the landing of smart homes.
Driven by 5G, AI, the Internet of Things and other technologies, the future home scene will present a smart space form of large screens, multi-screens, multi-projection devices, and anytime, anywhere interaction. When people get home, they can completely go mobile communication.
Today, the front end of the information industry is limited to the screens of hardware such as mobile phones and computers. However, in the context of 5G, intelligence will no longer be exclusive to hardware, but will be further extended to the broader "smart space" category.
Except for working hours, people spend most of their time in the family scene, which is the most important scene for personal consumption, life, and entertainment, and the business prospects are broad. The future smart home scene will become the most typical smart space representative.
Innovative companies such as Xiaomi's smart home company Yunmi Technology and Tuya Smart are expected to stand out. In addition, traditional home appliance companies such as Haier and Midea may also continue to succeed in the new home era through transformation.
Outside of the family scene, smart communities and smart cities with a larger spatial scope and the closest relationship with urban residents do not currently have much "smart" display, but the situation will be different in the 5G era.
Gao Mingyue, a partner of Shangyi Investment, believes that the flow of people in urban areas and communities is greater, and the demand for security management, logistics, energy management and other aspects is higher. 5G's ability to allow access to massive equipment will bring community and city management Upgrade of capabilities.
Teslian, Yealink Technology, which already has more mature businesses in the smart community field, and Qianfang Technology, Yuntian Lifei, Gaoxing, etc. in the smart city field have their own advantages, of which Qianfang Technology has obtained Ali's 36 100 million yuan in shares.
In addition, at the level of supply chain systems such as retail, logistics, and commodity processing and manufacturing, 5G also brings a super vision of unmanned personalized production from terminal sales, to logistics scheduling and distribution, and to factories.
It can be said that 5G technology upgrades have brought unprecedented opportunities to the development of the Internet of Things industry, but for 5G, its role can only play a very basic part. Multi-dimensional technologies such as AI and cloud computing can form a joint force. Significantly change the status quo of the industry.
5G requires multi-technology convergence
There are currently some mythical 5G sounds on the market, but in fact 5G is not a panacea. Most of the time, it needs to be integrated with technologies such as artificial intelligence and cloud computing.
In particular, the business integration of 5G and artificial intelligence has become the "standard configuration" for innovative companies that have obtained financing in the cold winter.
The ability of 5G to allow massive devices to access, for AI in data acquisition, information acquisition
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